Jacob Mazel

6.22.2008

Summary:

Lately, Japanese software has been in a down period, punctuated by occasional big releases. Last week, the big debut was Metal Gear Solid 4, which the preliminary data and Media Create put at about 460,000 units. This week, Metal Gear Solid 4 was knocked to the number three position on a very sharp drop in the preliminary data. Replacing Snake at the top was the latest iteration in the Super Robot Wars series on PSP. The other big release for the week was Mario Stadium, which sold over 60,000 units. Next week, the pattern will repeat, with Metal Gear Solid 4, Mario Stadium, and Super Robot Wars dropping position quickly with Tales of Symphonia 2 releasing on Wii.

Key Points:

- Metal Gear Solid 4 had the biggest week one to week two percentage drop in the preliminary data since these articles have been posted, a time frame of over a year.

- PSP and Wii sold the most software in the preliminary top twenty.

- The top twenty games accounted for fewer than 400,000 units in the preliminary data this week, compared to over 700,000 units last week.

Understanding the Japanese Preview:

Rather than saying x game for y platform sold between 20,000 and 28,000 units as in the past, from this point forward, the preliminary data will be broken down into charts by platform. Within these charts, there will two additional categories besides the rounded sales figure under ‘sales’. On the left will be ‘low end’ depicting the lowest amount the title likely sold for the week, while to the right will be ‘high end’ depicting the highest amount the title likely sold for the week. As always, this data is preliminary, and therefore, not final, but it is based on a sample. Sales for this report are for the week ending June 22, 2008.

Software by Platform Breakdown:

Wii Software – Mario Baseball debuted to sales of 61,000 units according to the preliminary data. Joining it were the likes of Mario Kart Wii, which sold 26,000 units for the week, and Wii Fit. Wii Fit sold another 20,000 units according to the preliminary data. Next week will be interesting for Wii software, as the release of Tales of Symphonia on Gamecube accompanied a rather large hardware boost . Given the size of the Wii user base a ~220,000 debut for Tales of Symphonia 2 seems likely next week, which could boost Wii hardware to 55,000 or 60,000 units. For this week, expect Wii hardware sales to be in the 40,000 to 50,000 unit range.

PS3 Software – Metal Gear Solid 4 was the only PS3 title represented in the preliminary data, but it appeared as two skus. The game had a mammoth drop from last week, selling less than a tenth of its debut figures in the preliminary data. There is a chance the game simply sold out at the store, which could put it higher than the preliminary data has it, but usually there are indications of sold out status. Games that people buy with a title like Metal Gear Solid 4 tend to see sales perk up as people wait for the marquee title in the case of a sell out. That was not the case this week. Last week, Metal Gear Solid 4 debuted to ~460k, a figure comparable to Metal Gear Solid 3 and Metal Gear Solid 2 on PS2, despite the fact that PS3 had only a fraction of the PS2 base at the time of each Metal Gear Solid launch. On PS2 in peak years, both previous Metal Gear Solids saw sales decline from nearly 500k to about 100k. With Metal Gear Solid 4 achieving a huge attach rate in week one on the relatively small PS3 base it was not surprising that the title dropped. What was surprising is that according to the preliminary data, it sold fewer than 40,000 units. My expectation for this week had been 60,000-70,000 for the game. Expect PS3 hardware sales to drop to 25,000 to 45,000 units this week.

Xbox 360 Software – No Xbox 360 titles were in the preliminary data this week. Expect Xbox 360 hardware to remain in the 1,200 to 2,200 unit range this week.

PS2 Software – Three PS2 titles, one of which has three skus, were in the preliminary data this week. The top seller was Harukanuru 4 which sold over 30,000 units across its three skus. Metal Gear Solid 2 and Metal Gear Solid 3 were also in the preliminary data, riding the Metal Gear Solid 4 hype wave to sales of a few more thousand units this week. As always, PS2 software is more represented in down weeks, and with only two titles selling over 50,000 units this week, it is not too surprising to see PS2 well represented. Expect PS2 hardware sales to remain in the 5,000 to 10,000 unit range for the week.

PSP Software – The new Super Robot Wars was the top PSP and top overall title for the week, selling over 100,000 units. Powerful Pro Baseball Portable 3 is starting to show some good legs, as the title sold another 24,000 units this week. Monster Hunter Portable 2G, a game with exceptional legs, continues to sell quite well. The preliminary data has the title at 20,000 units this week. Pulling up the rear is Valhalla Knights 2 which sold another 8,000 units this week. Looking ahead, PSP software is about to quiet down, as no ‘big’ releases are on the horizon, although a number of small to medium hits will continue to release. Expect PSP hardware sales to remain in the 55,000 to 70,000 unit range.

DS Software – DS software has a pretty quiet week. The latest Pachislot game was the only DS game to break 10,000 units for the week. Between 5,000 and 10,000 units, DS had five titles represented - Super Robot Wars, Mario Kart, Drum Master, Puyo Puyo, and Pro Baseball. Later in the year, Dragon Quest V, VI, and IX should reinvigorate DS software sales. Expect DS hardware sales to remain in the 30,000 to 40,000 unit range this week.

Contact Vgchartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com