Third Quarter and Year to Date Review

Jacob Mazel

The three month quarter ending September 30, 2008 saw ongoing videogame sales growth worldwide despite dropping sales in Japan compared to last year. From July 1 to September 30 2008, 17.2m videogame machines were sold compared to 16.2m in the same quarter in 2007. Wii and PS3 sold 700,000 and 600,000 more machines, respectively, in Q3 2008 vs. Q3 2007, while Xbox 360 and DS each sold about 200,000 more. PSP was flat on a worldwide basis. PS2 dropped about 700,000 units. Its important to note that the Xbox 360 increases came with worldwide price cuts in 2008, while the other platforms to see increases did not get price cuts. Sales for the July-September 2008 period can be seen below:

The top three sellers have remained the same from quarter three 2007 to quarter three 2008. However, the bottom three platforms have shifted quite a bit as can be seen by looking at the quarter three 2007 totals.

The most obvious changes are in Japan. Microsoft went from selling 36,000 Xbox 360s in thirteen weeks to selling 116,000 Xbox 360s in thirteen weeks. That increase is still small in absolute numbers – less than 100,000 units – but huge in relative terms since it is a 3:1 improvement over the previous year. No other platform comes close that in looking at the two quarters. PS3 in Japan interestingly dropped from 227,000 in thirteen weeks in 2007 to 138,000 units in 2008. At least part of that has to be tied to the emergence of Xbox 360, since PS3 sales have more than doubled in “Others” and increased nearly 50% in the Americas. Wii sales are down in Q3 2008 vs. Q3 2007 in Japan, but the drop is relatively minor compared to the 50% declines suffered by DS, PS2 and PSP in Japan.

The breakdown of Q3 2008 sales compared to Q3 2007 sales shows an industry still moving towards the generational peak outside of Japan.

In contrast, the rest of the world is doing quite well in 2008 compared to 2007. DS is up 20% in the Americas and 30% in “Others” for the quarter. Wii is up 20% overall, 70% in “Others”, and 20% in the Americas. PSP is up slightly in the Americas and “Others”. PS3 is up everywhere except Japan as mentioned above. Xbox 360 is performing better everywhere, though the combined improvement is still less than the PS3 and Wii increases worldwide, despite the falling sales of those machines in Japan.

Expanding for the other quarters of 2007 and 2008, 2008 looks like an even stronger year.

Through nine months, the total hardware sold in 2008 exceeds the total hardware sold in 2007 by almost 24%. While Japan accounted for 25% of hardware sales in the nine months ending September 2007, the country only accounts for 15% of hardware sold in 2008. The Americas has accounted for 37-38% each year, but the “Others” market has exploded in 2008 taking up the slack in Japan.

Given that 81.4m units of videogame hardware ended up selling in calendar 2007, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see 100m units of videogame hardware sold in 2008.

The changes by platform and region from January to September can be summed up quickly with the following chart which divides sales from the first nine months of 2008 by the first nine months of 2007.

The growth/decline trends in the box above should continue roughly unchanged through the fourth quarter except in Japan, where DS, PSP, and Xbox 360 have a shot at being significantly stronger (or less weak) year over year. PS3 and Wii have an outside shot at matching their 2007 Q4 sales in Japan too depending on how well the new IPs hold up over the holidays.

In terms of software, Pokemon Platinum, Rhythm Heaven Gold, Fire Emblem DS, Dragon Quest V, and Derby Stallion were the DS titles in Japan to push DS past PSP for the quarter. Tales of Vesperia, Infinite Undiscovery were the exclusives to push Xbox 360 to parity with PS3. Winning Eleven 2008, Super Robot Wars, Persona 4 and Powerful Pro Baseball kept PS2 above Xbox 360 and PS3 for most of the quarter, while Phantasy Star Portable maintained PSP momentum ahead of DS for awhile. Soul Calibur IV was the top multiplatform title released. Wii and PS3 didn’t really have any big titles released in Japan for the period. The second tier of big hits, including previously released games included Wii Fit, Wii Sports, Wii Play, Afrika, Metal Gear Solid 4, Monster Hunter Portable 2G and Mario Kart Wii in Japan.

In the Americas, Guitar Hero Aerosmith, NCAA Football 09, Soul Calibur IV, Madden NFL 09, Tiger Woods 09, Mercenaries 2, Too Human, Star Wars: The Force Unleashed, Rockband 2, and Super Mario Sluggers were the major releases for the period which saw almost no significant exclusives to change hardware sales patterns. Among previously released games, Wii Fit, Mario Kart Wii, Wii Play, Metal Gear Solid 4, Guitar Hero: On Tour, Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock, Rockband continued to sell strongly in the Americas for the third quarter.

In Others, Pokemon Mysterious Dungeon 2, Soul Calibur IV, Guitar Hero: On Tour, Mercenaries 2, Star Wars: The Force Unleashed and Brothers in Arms were the major releases. Other top sellers for the period include Nintendogs, Wii Play, Wii Fit, Grand Theft Auto IV, Mario Kart Wii, Super Smash Brothers Brawl, Metal Gear Solid 4, Brain Training, Brain Training 2, Mario Kart DS, New Super Mario Brothers, and Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games.  

Later in the week, VGC will have an item posted in the news section with holiday prognostications. Stay tuned.

Contact Vgchartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com