Jacob Mazel

It is almost that time again. E3 is coming. After a massive downsizing last year to only a few thousand people, the ESA expects the show to host 40,000 industry folks making the pilgrimage to the City of Angels. At the moment, nine Vgchartz members will be covering the show, including yours truly. We'll have an announcent on how we plan to cover the show within the next ten days.

The idea of this preview is that with fiscal year projections for Sony and Nintendo now in, as well as the endless barrage of rumors ahead of E3 this is as good a time as any to weigh in on what is likely to happen and what is likely not to happen. Since this is a long piece, the preview is divided into four sections – third party key developments, Sony-centric key developments, Microsoft-centric key developments, and finally Nintendo-centric key developments.

The information below is almost entirely based on ‘informed speculation’ – so expect a lot of the information to be wrong – but a fair amount of it to be right. Some humor is included in the predictions, so be warned. It looks like a good show this year though.

Third Parties

Looking at the known release lists for the next few months, the five companies to watch at the show among the independent publishers are Square-Enix, Activision-Blizzard, EA, Ubisoft and Take Two.

Square-Enix

Square-Enix is probably going to have a great show. Its two biggest franchises, bar none, are Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest and both could (should) be playable. Here is the issue: both are releases in the year ending March 2010 in all likelihood. They will likely be centerpieces of E3. DS gets Dragon Quest IX which has an outside shot at 4m just in Japan. Final Fantasy XIII probably won’t make it outside Japan before fall 2010 due to the Xbox 360 port and time needed for language translation but could still be at least in demo format. But these two games alone, coming to Japan by the end of 2009, mean Square-Enix is likely to earn dramatically less money in the following fiscal year, even if Final Fantasy XIII releases in the west during the March 2011 year.

For the big titles the split works out to roughly the following revenue totals in FY 3/2010

FFXIII – 1.8m-2.2m – Japan – PS3 ($60 * 2m = $120m)

DQIX* – 4.0m-5.0m – Japan – DS ($60 * 4.5m = $270m)

DQIX - 200k-400k – Rest of the World – DS ($35 * 0.3m = $10.5m)

*5980 Yen in Japan

That compares to what should be lesser figures in FY 3/2011

FFXIII – 5.0m – Outside Japan – 360/PS3 ($60 * 5.0m = $300m)

With Kingdom Hearts DS (May in Japan) and Kingdom Hearts PSP (?) also both at least likely to release worldwide this fiscal year, Square-Enix probably is set to unveil multiple big projects for the next fiscal year to insure that profit margins remain robust as even the Final Fantasy Versus XIII can’t offset the releases of Kingdom Hearts, Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy XIII in the same year.

One possibility for the next fiscal year is that formerly Xbox 360 exclusive titles such as Last Remnant, Star Ocean and Infinite Undiscovery could find their way to the PS3. Another possibility is simply more remakes and re-releases. The third possibility is a console Kingdom Hearts, likely for Wii. Another possibility is that Square-Enix could release a number of Dragon Quest Swords like spinoffs for Wii to try to build up their fan base on the system ahead of Dragon Quest X, which presumably won’t be out until the March 2012 fiscal year or later. Lastly, Square-Enix may ramp up PSP support based on the success of previous titles and the rumored new PSP model.

The Call : Kingdom Hearts PSP may get ported in the March 2011 year to Wii to reach the western audience. One of the former 360 titles will probably be ported to PS3. Wii and PSP will each get a unique spinoff title. A title with roughly the impact of a Final Fantasy Tactics seems like a good bet to be announced.

Activision-Blizzard

DJ Hero and Tony Hawk have the potential of cementing Activision-Blizzard as the new EA.

Guitar Hero has held up better than Rockband as a franchise. But Activision can’t keep selling fake guitars and there are only so many songs that millions of people will pay to download. The music genre performs well on all three consoles though, and with motion control based rumors for Sony and Microsoft, and a definite improvement in Wii motion-tech based on Wii Motion Plus, the DJ genre could really take off as a new genre in its own right. Sub-genres in gaming tend to explode in popularity every so often, in the late 1990s the snowboarding and skateboarding games were labeled as “extreme sports” from within the traditional sports game sector. DJ games, as a subset of music games could really take advantage of motion technology by placing the player even more deeply into the action than games like Guitar Hero and Rockband currently offer.

Activision’s other big games, notably Call of Duty, should remain absolutely massive. With the success of Shaun White Snowboarding on the Wii balance board; there will probably be a Tony Hawk revival as well across the six videogame platforms, especially if the motion control rumors for Sony and Microsoft are true. But if the company can grow the DJ music genre into something rivaling its traditional music games, while maintaining Call of Duty and relying on its cache of Blizzard hits, it could have perhaps seven completely bankable and well diversified brands – Guitar Hero, DJ Hero, Call of Duty, Tony Hawk, Warcraft, Starcraft and Diablo. That would rival the reliability of EA, which currently has Madden, Rockband, Need for Speed, Tiger Woods, The Sims and Fifa as annual platinum hits.

The Call: Look for a lot of focus on DJ Hero and Tony Hawk using motion plus implementations and peripherals respectively to revitalize the growth of the music and extreme sports genres.

Electronic Arts

EA has several titles worth watching at the show this year. Beatles: Rockband is probably the title to be released after E3 with the greatest potential to break out as a massive hit (even by the standards of the  genre). Music games have wide demographic appeal in the United States but their success has been fairly muted in other western markets. As the most famous British band ever and one of the iconic sounds of the baby boomer generation the Beatles incorporation into Rockband has the potential to greatly push the Rockband franchise to new heights in Britain and among older demographics. If the game is simple enough to use on Wii, it might be able to take advantage of the Wii Fit house wife demographic. On PS3 and Xbox 360, the game could justify console purchases since the old folks could use the system for at least this one title. 

If the motion tech rumors for Sony and Microsoft are true, EA may begin porting some of its Wii titles to Xbox 360 and PS3. The interesting part of this though is that the three systems could have three unique motion interfaces, which would prevent direct ports. Boom Blox could be adapted to Xbox 360 camera-motion tech to account for different strengths and weaknesses relative to the Wii setup. Shooting a ball at a block with a gun in the Wii version might be a button push on the Wii remote. For the camera based setup rumored to be on the Xbox 360 it could be tapping your thumb on your outer finger to simulate shooting. That kind of implementation conversion could be difficult and time consuming to develop across three different interfaces.

For multiplatform hits in the sports genre – which is EA’s bread and butter – development costs could actually increase pretty substantially if Madden used camera motion tech for 360, Wii Motion Plus for Wii, standard controls for PS2 and PSP, stylus control for DS, and some other kind of proprietary motion control for PS3. Furthermore, Madden traditionalists on the PS3 and Xbox 360 would probably grab their pitchforks and knives if the simulations were only offered with motion controls which would mean EA would have to either release multiple skus per system or allow for varied control options. Advertising the games as motion-oriented or traditional would be a tough call as well, since doing both would probably alienate one interface audience or the other.

If the motion tech rumors are false, look for focus on non-sports core oriented franchises at the show, such as Dead Space and Spore for Wii, iPhone games, Saboteur, Dante’s Inferno and Brutal Legend for PS3 and Xbox 360.

The Call : Beatles, Motion Plus, and core franchise focus for EA at the big show this year.

Ubisoft

Ubisoft has several titles worth watching. We’ll see the revamped Clancy games. Rabbits Wii – what Ubisoft has announced as a comedy adventure – and non mini-game fest. Red Steel 2- the motion plus Wii exclusive western. Call of Juarez will be there too in all likelihood. The real show stopper may be Assassin’s Creed 2 though. Reviews of the first game were mixed, but there was a pretty strong consensus that with the kinks ironed out the game could have been a masterpiece instead of just above average to great. If the game gets ironed out and stands out among the other biggest E3 titles, it will likely be one of the biggest hits of the year across all platforms. Otherwise it will probably perform a bit worse than the first title did.

In terms of surprises, don’t be shocked if Ubisoft tries to expand its line of sports games. Shaun White Snowboarding performed pretty well for a new sports game franchise, so the company may look to take advantage of that foothold into the genre by expanding into other sports games. Under-served sporting events are the most likely targets as EA, Konami, Sega, Sony, Activision, THQ and Take Two make most sports games. Cricket, surfing, fencing, or jousting could work. Otherwise, we may just see a Shaun White sequel. There does seem to be a hole in the ‘wacky sports’ genre for someone to fill though, and it may as well be Ubisoft. Who wouldn’t love a cartoon-weapon based Iditarod sports game for instance?

Since Ubisoft probably doesn’t know how successful motion-plus will be, the company will probably pitch Red Steel 2 as the definitive third party core game for motion plus. The risk is if someone makes a Zorro, fencing or light saber game for the end of the year. But as a western, and a western not competing with Red Dead Revolver 2 on PS3 and Xbox 360 from Take Two, the game should benefit from having the genre essentially to itself on Wii.

For some reason, Ubisoft also tends to get its hands on early hardware and accessory builds from the big three a little before other companies. So if there is a new PSP model with compelling features don’t be surprised if titles like Assassin’s Creed or Splinter Cell take advantage of them more astutely than other initial third party efforts. Red Steel 2 (M+), any DSi titles, and any PS3/360 motion tech titles in development will likely fall into the same category – among the crème of the crop from the initial wave of third party games to use the new tech.

Ubisoft may even have some demos running somewhere behind thick closed doors on PSP2/DS2/PS4/Wii2/X720 hardware. It isn’t too early for some of those titles to be in the very earliest stages of development among elite developers.

The Call: Assassin’s Creed, Red Steel 2 and the new Clancy game(s) are the focus of the show. Ubisoft will also give a fair amount of attention to how it plans to take advantage of DSi, PSP-Go, iPhone, Motion + and whatever plans Microsoft and Sony have for motion plus that may (or may not) exist.

Take Two

Take Two is more or less a one trick pony in terms of reliable franchises. But it’s the strongest, most durable pony in the industry among third parties. That franchise is Grand Theft Auto. The biggest compliment the franchise received came last year, when Nintendo felt the need to counter it with what has become one of its best selling games ever, Mario Kart Wii. GTAIV released in April 2008 though. Rockstar has had ample time to develop the next Grand Theft Auto. Since the PS3 + 360 bases will be at least 60m by the end of 2009, the next Grand Theft Auto can probably top the previous version, especially since the cost of entry is now only $260 ($200 Xbox 360 + $60 game) which is significantly lower than in 2008. With the DS version approaching 500,000 worldwide and likely to eventually top 1m or 2m, Take Two may also consider bringing some kind of GTA experience to Wii where game purchasing rates and demographics are more favorable than DS. Take Two may also try to capitalize on the likely PSP-Go launch, as the GTA titles have sold very well on the PSP.     

Outside of a new GTA, one title to watch appears to be the sequel to Red Dead Redemption which was a modest hit on PS2 as a western game. Very little is known about the game, but since it is set to release in the third quarter, Take Two will likely use the event to build interest for the title, especially if there isn’t another GTA announced at the show. As is the case with Red Steel 2 on Wii, or Assassin’s Creed 2 there is very little competition on Xbox 360 or PS3 for the mix of game play and setting the game will likely offer.

The Call : GTA Next is the big PS3/360 revelation from Take Two, but probably just a teaser. Some kind of digitally distributed version of the game may come to the PSP-Go though as well. The big game short term will be Red Dead Redemption.

Sony’s E3

There have been rumors about pretty much anything you can imagine for Sony. A PS3 slim. PSP2. A PSP 4000 with digital distribution. A PS3 price cut. PS3 motion controls. The best way to evaluate what is likely to happen is to divide the rumors, speculation, and pseudo-news into items likely to show up at E3, items which may show up at E3, and items not likely to show up at E3. For each level of likelihood, five rumors will be evaluated. Sony will likely focus on its new PSP model and exclusive PS3 titles at the show.

Likely (70-30 in favor):

1)   PSP-Go/PSP 4000. Something is up with the PSP. All over the world PSP shipments have been down year over year. Software shipments have been down year over year. Piracy is rampant, and this is killing PSP game purchase rates across a hardware base that is in theory as big as the Wii base. However, Sony has projected 15m PSPs for the fiscal year, up from the 14.11m in the March 2009 year. Since the company probably doesn’t want to cut price on PS2, PS3, and PSP in the same fiscal year, and yet PSP shipments are forecast to be up while currently trending down, it is likely Sony has a new PSP model ready to go. Look for a new PSP model, priced at $150-$200 accompanied by some kind of new bundle for old PSP systems (i.e. a PSP 2000 and two free games for the same price as a PSP 2000) to eliminate excess stock of the old systems, in addition to the already announced bundles. With digital distribution and profitable hardware, the aim of the new PSP model seems to be to offset the now rapid decline of the PS2 market while simultaneously having enough cash to justify a PS3 price cut later in the year.

2)   God of War 3 and Gran Turismo 5 will be the exclusive headliners for the Christmas 2009 season.

3)   Sony will devote major time to unannounced exclusive titles using the new features of PSP GO. Monster Hunter 2G like functionality, which has essentially saved the PSP in Japan will be the focus of this push.

4)   Sony will have some kind of budget lineup ($20-$40) of new titles for PS2 users.

5)   In line with the structural reorganization of Sony, and public statements from Sony officials, Sony will begin reorienting PS3 as a centerpiece for its new “networked devices” division which includes what had been the independent game segment of Sony.

50-50 Chance

1) Sony will find a way to tout PS3 as the leading game platform even though it was outsold by DS, Wii, Xbox 360 and PSP in the year ending March 2009.

2) Sony will unveil internally developed PSN games which can be improved experientially in some way by owning a PSP and PS3.

3) Ahead of the PSP-Go launch, Sony will cut the price of physical PSP games to $20-$30 to help the retail channel clear out excess stock.

4) PS3 will get a service to rival or exceed the Xbox 360 Netflix deal.

5) Sony will try to introduce an advanced eye-toy like functionality to the PS3.

Unlikely (30-70)

1)      Final Fantasy XIII will be the centerpiece of the show.

2)      PS3 will get a $100 price cut.

3)      Sony will introduce a motion sensing technology beyond an upgraded eye toy.

4)      The PSP ‘revision’ will be PSP2 not a PSP-Go – an entirely new system.

5)      Sony will try to incorporate cell phone technology into PSP to try to stave off the threat of the iPhone.

Microsoft’s E3

A number of rumors surround Microsoft’s showing as well. The company is rumored to have major motion technology initiatives of its own and virtually nothing is known about the company’s line up of exclusive games. Rumors and speculation will once again be divided into likely, 50-50, and unlikely status.

Likely (70-30)

1)   Microsoft will announce new initiatives for improving PC gaming utilizing the upcoming Windows 7.

2)   Rather than attempting to rebrand the Xbox 360 over 3.5 years into its life, Microsoft will probably test its major new motion tech interfaces with the smaller retail PC gaming market. Think Minority Report based Windows 7.

3)   A section of the show will be devoted to Microsoft’s plans for implementing some small motion control technology advances in Xbox Live and eye toy like games.

4)   Fewer than expected Microsoft titles will be unveiled at the show as Microsoft sends its elite teams to begin prototyping Xbox 720 games.

5)   However, third party exclusives and a big Rare game or two (they’re due) will help offset the paucity of internal titles.

50-50

1) Microsoft will unveil a platinum hits lineup of Xbox 360 titles for $30 or $40.

2) Microsoft will try to lower the costs of Xbox ownership without lowering the console price. Think cheaper accessories. Or fewer accessories.

3) There will be some kind of improvement to the avatar functionality on the Xbox 360.

4) Microsoft will allow the Xbox 360 dashboard to become more customizable through a firmware update.

5) Microsoft will announce a campaign to try to get women interested in Xbox 360 games that use the camera-motion technology.

Unlikely (30-70)

1)   Xbox Live prices will be lowered across the board – for buying games, for developers making games, for using Net Flix – everything.

2)   Peter Moore will rejoin Microsoft.

3)   Microsoft will cut the Xbox 360 price to $150/$250/$350.

4)   Metal Gear Solid 4 will be announced for Xbox 360 with bonus features.

5)   Third parties like Capcom and Sega will announce some sequels to beloved Dreamcast titles like Powerstone and Shenmue in honor of the coming tenth year anniversary of 9/9/1999.

Nintendo’s E3

Relatively few rumors surround Nintendo’s press conference. Motion Plus, Pikmin 3, and supplemental earnings sheet games like Takt of Magic and Cosmic Walker are expected to show up. But Retro, EAD and some third parties should have some surprises as well. One persistent rumor is Wii Fit Plus. Once again, rumors are divided up between what is likely, possible, and unlikely.

Likely (70-30)

1)   Nintendo will unveil a Wii video streaming service, likely featuring esoteric infomercials or some other crazy kind of service for the western markets at E3.

2)   DSi and Wii Motion Plus games will be the major focus of the showing.

3)   High concept indie-Wii Ware games will be given a lot of attention in light of the success of games like Lost Winds and World of Goo. Swords & Soldiers on Wii Ware may be getting held back in the United States just so that Nintendo can show it off at E3.

4)   Nintendo will unveil one final motion technology based initiative on Wii.

5)  A trailer of Zelda Wii, using motion plus, will debut at the end of the conference with a release date of “Spring 2010”.

50-50

1)   Kirby Wii will finally be shown off. Cosmic Walker, Takt of Magic, Sin & Punishment 2, and Line Attack Heroes probably will get some attention as well. Pikmin 3 and several unannounced titles from Nintendo and third parties will headline though to help Nintendo make sure it meets its 26m Wii projection even though sales look down in April and May.

2)   Representatives from Nintendo and Capcom will try to pitch Monster Hunter 3 as an essential experience that western audiences – core and new – can enjoy playing together. Capcom’s fiscal year results implied the game would be releasing in the west by March 2010.

3)   Nintendo will cut the DS Lite price to clear out remaining inventory so that it can sell more of the pricier DSi units at retail in the long term.

4)   Wii Fit Plus will be announced for “2010”.

5)   Pikmin 3 will incorporate Mii functionality. That’s right – you’ll be able to put your face on the body of a Pikmin.

Unlikely (30-70)

1)   A Wii Sports patch will be announced, allowing the title to support motion plus technology.

2)   New Super Mario Brothers 2 and Nintendogs 2 will be announced for DSi.

3)   Nintendo will include Motion Plus with every Wii starting in June.

4)   A new Mario vs. Sonic crossover game will be announced.

5)   Retro’s new game will be revealed to be Kid Icarus largely to end the death threats being sent to IGN-Wii.

Contact Vgchartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com