Summary:

The preliminary figures for the week ending August 2, 2009 are full of surprises. As expected, Monster Hunter 3 was the top selling game for the week, surpassing 500,000 units in just two days. The bundle comprised of the game itself and the Black Classic Controller Pro was the most preordered of the three non-hardware bundles, but in the weekly data it was actually the slowest seller, rising just 10% from its preorder figure. The white controller bundle rose only about 30% from final preorders. Since the package of Monster Hunter 3 by itself nearly doubled it is likely that the retailer saw sellouts of the other two packages very early on, and as a result we may end up low on Monster Hunter 3. Otherwise, it was a strong week for software with six games selling over 50,000 units. Dragon Quest IX has suddenly developed a case of strong legs on the DS, Tamodatchi went up again, and Wii Sports Resort continues to hold around 70,000. With only twenty positions available in the early data, the poorer selling skus of many titles did not chart.

Key Trends to Watch:

-  The new Wii baseline. With Monster Hunter 3 and the first new Wii color lifting Wii hardware this week, where the system ends up after Monster Hunter 3 hoopla quiets down will go along way to go toward determining how Wii will perform in the quiet autumn months.

-  Dragon Quest IX had a fairly impressive hold this week. If the title can remain over 100,000 next week as well, the coming Obon lift may be enough to see it pass 4.0m eventually.

-  Xbox 360 and PS3 hardware sales. With strong Wii software coming to maintain interest in the platform, strong DS content coming, and the PSP-Go launch coming soon interest in PS3 and Xbox 360 may drop significantly over the never several months as Tales of Vesperia is the only big title coming in the short term.

Understanding the Japanese Preview:

Rather than saying x game for y platform sold between 20,000 and 28,000 units as in the past, the preliminary data will be broken down into charts by platform. Within these charts, there will two additional categories besides the rounded sales figure under ‘sales’. On the left will be ‘low end’ depicting the lowest amount the title likely sold for the week, while to the right will be ‘high end’ depicting the highest amount the title likely sold for the week. As always, this data is preliminary, and therefore, not final, but it is based on a sample. The varying platform market share the sample represents is why consistent sellers like Wii Fit do not always appear in the preliminary data. Sales for this report are for the week ending August 2, 2009

Software by Platform:

Wii Software – Four Wii skus charted in the preliminary data, three of them were Monster Hunter 3. However, the hardware bundle is not included. The top selling Monster Hunter 3 package appears to have been the White Classic Controller Pro bundle although there are strong indications that this bundle, along with the Black Classic Controller Pro bundle also sold out at this retailer. So we may be underestimating the game. The Monster Hunter 3 game packaged with nothing else performed as expected nearly doubling its preorders and coming in second place amongst the three skus. With the hardware bundle, Monster Hunter likely came in at about 520,000 to 550,000 for the week – barring massive sellout at this retailer. Wii Sports Resort sold another 68,000 units for the week. With the new Black Wii available for the week, and the MH3 + Black Wii bundle, Wii hardware sales will be up significantly. This will probably mean that Taiko, Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Wii Play, Mario Kart Wii, Punch Out and a few other Wii games sold 3,000 or more units in addition to Monster Hunter 3 and Wii Sports Resort. Expect Wii hardware sales to rise into the 55,000 to 85,000 unit range for the week.

PS3 Software – The King of Fighters XIII was the only PS3 game to chart in the preliminary data. It sold about 18,000 copies. Pro Yakyuu Spirits 6 will likely appear in the final data with sales of 10,000 to 12,000 for the week as well. Expect PS3 hardware sales to remain in the 7,000 to 10,000 unit range for the week.

Xbox 360 Software – Gears of War 2 was the only Xbox 360 game to chart in the preliminary data. It sold about 33,000 copies. Expect Xbox 360 hardware sales to rise into the 3,000 to 5,000 unit range for the week.

PS2 Software – Panchinko, baseball, and a game involving something about a kiss were the top sellers on the PS2 this week. The absurdly long-named Panchinko game sold 38,000 units in total, with 6,000 units coming from the limited edition. After debuting lower than the PS3 version of Pro Yakyuu Spirits 6, the PS2 version topped the PS3 version with sales of 14,000 for the week. Tsuyo Kiss 2 Gakki came in at 7,000 units for the week. Expect PS2 hardware sales to remain in the 3,500 to 5,500 range for the week.

PSP Software – Armored Core 3 Portable had a solid debut on the PSP this week. It sold 50,000 units for the week easily topping the combined sales of the other four PSP titles to chart in the preliminary data. To Heart 2 Portable w/ Limited Edition Pack sold 14,000 units for the week. My Summer Vacation 4 sold another 12,000 units for the week, while Monster Hunter Portable 2G and Project Diva sold in the high four-digits for the week. Expect PSP hardware sales to fall into the 26,000 to 30,000 unit range for the week.

DS Software – The DS had another impressive week of software sales. Three titles sold over 50,000 units for the week on the system – including new debut Puyo Puyo 7. Dragon Quest IX dipped to 176,000 for the week, falling less than 40% from what it sold last week. Tamodatchi Collection saw a significant rise, jumping up to 94,000 units sold for the week. Penguin no Monday 2 fell to 25,000 units for the week. Lastly, another lengthily named Panchinko title sold 17,000 units for the week. Expect DS hardware sales to fall into the 75,000 to 85,000 unit range as the massive Dragon Quest IX + red-DSi bump slowly wears off. 

Contact Vgchartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com