Sales Battle of the Day

Mario Kart Wii vs. New Super Mario Bros.

Description: Mario has seen a huge resurgence this generation on both the Wii and the DS. Today's Sales Battle of the Day is looking at which of the current two top selling Mario games this generation will finish with the higher total sales.

Based on that information here is a look at how long it would take Mario Kart Wii to catch up.

What Mario Kart Wii has going...

For it: Higher weekly sells.  Is close to catching up despite being out less than half the time of New Super Mario Bros. The Wii price cut should increase Wii hardware sales which will likely increase Mario Kart Wii sales.

Against it: Still has ~2 million units to catch up. The pace at which it is catching up to New Super Mario Bros. has decreased lately.

What New Super Mario Bros. has going...

For it: Currently has the sales lead. If it is like Mario Kart DS, the Wii sequel may accompany an increase in sales for the DS version. Sometimes the game is bundled with the DS.

Against it: Being outsold by Mario Kart Wii on a weekly basis. Has been out much longer than Mario Kart Wii and only has a relatively small lead to show for it. It is possible that the Wii sequel will actually slow sells of the DS version.

Based on the approximately equal pros and cons for each game, plus the fact that at the current rate it would take Mario Kart Wii another year to catch up, it seems like it would be a close race.  However; if you look at the weekly sales graph from launch for each game, things start to look pretty bleak for New Super Mario Bros.

As you can see Mario Kart Wii is tracking significantly ahead of New Super Mario Bros. at the same time frame.  In fact with ~100 weeks less of availability, Mario Kart has nearly erased the deficit between the two games.  So if the trend continues Mario Kart Wii should be able to speed by the cumulative sales of New Super Mario Bros.

So are things hopeless for New Super Mario Bros. chances to outsell Mario Kart Wii? Not quite. Obviously there is always the possibility that New Super Mario Bros. will be bundled more frequently with the DS allowing it to see an increase in sales, and keeping Mario Kart Wii from catching up.  Based on the information currently available, I still think there is one scenario in which New Super Mario Bros. holds onto a slight lead or the two games end up in a virtual tie.

 If you look at Mario Kart DS’s sales after the release of Mario Kart Wii, you will see that in the 76 weeks since the release of Mario Kart Wii (weeks 125-201), the sales are actually higher than in weeks 11-87.  This is a little counterintuitive, as typically the sells of a game are stronger earlier on its lifespan. 

So did Mario Kart Wii cause Mario Kart DS to see an increase in sales and can New Super Mario Bros Wii do the same thing for the DS version? Well it is impossible to determine if the release of Mario Kart Wii caused the increase in sales or if some other factors that happened to coincide with the release of Mario Kart Wii (like increased advertising for Mario Kart DS) are responsible.  But if New Super Mario Bros. Wii results in a similar scenario for New Super Mario Bros. DS, then it is possible the game will see an increase in weekly sells or at least be able to stay at current levels. 

The release of New Super Mario Bros. Wii is also important because it is in direct competition with Mario Kart Wii. Since its release Mario Kart Wii has been one of the top selling Wii titles on a weekly basis, but with the recent introduction of Wii Sports Resort and potential upcoming evergreen Wii titles in Wii Fit plus, New Super Mario Bros. Wii and to a lesser extent Mario & Sonic at the Winter Olympic Games, Mario Kart Wii might have too much competition to maintain its sells, and actually see a drop off.

In this scenario the current rate of ~35,000 that Mario Kart Wii is outselling New Super Mario Bros. might drop down to the 5,000-10,000 range, in which case it would take multiple years for Mario Kart Wii to catch up if it ever did, even when accounting for bigger differences during holiday periods.

To sum up, I think the most likely scenario is Mario Kart Wii continuing to outpace New Super Mario Bros. and ending up  with total sales of 4-5 million or more higher than New Super Mario Bros.  But in a best case scenario for New Super Mario Bros., the upcoming release of New Super Mario Bros Wii would help the sales of the DS version and provide direct competition to Mario Kart causing a decrease in sales for the game, in which case Mario Kart Wii and New Super Mario Bros. could end up in a virtual tie.

One thing is for sure, when you are talking about one mascot being featured in two 20 million plus selling games, the real winner is the franchise owner.  That’s my take on the sales; now let’s have a look at the results from the poll asking the VGChartz community which game they think will come out on top and some of the best reasoned arguments from the thread.

3. Koffieboon - “I voted for Mario Kart. Wii will continue to sell longer than DS and those sales will help Mario Kart to overcome NSMB.”

2. Buzzi – “With the price cut of the Wii also Mario Kart will be boosted, being one of the Wii's evergreen titles...in less than one year it will overpass NSMB (if it keeps selling at least at this rate).”

1. Pineapple – “If I look at it a bit simple. The two major changes that we know of are: The effect of the Wii price cut and the effect of NSMB Wii. I have little doubt that the effect of the price cut will be more of a boost for MKWii than NSMB Wii will have on NSMB DS. I think that these two games are likely to become the best selling games (save the Wii Play/Sports) of the generation. NSMB should end in the 28-33M group, whereas I see Mario Kart Wii in the 30-40M range (40M being rather unlikely).”

That’s it for this Sales Battle of the Day.  Keep an eye out for another edition next week.

Most recent "Sales of the Day" articles, Retro Sales, Change in Sales, Sales Battle,  Look at Those Legs.