Sales Battle of the Day

Gears of War vs. Gears of War 2

Description: The Gears of War franchise has become a massive success on the Xbox 360 this generation, becoming the highest selling exclusive new IP on either HD platform. After Gears of War became a hit, the anticipation for the second game in the series was huge, resulting in one of the biggest first weeks for a game this generation. After the big launch however; sales for Gears of War 2 have slowed down and after a year of release it still trails the original game by ~600,000. So will Gears of War 2 ever be able to surpass the sales of the original game and exhibit signs of growth for the franchise, or is Gears of War a franchise that will have peaked with its first release?

When Gears of War 2 launched with first week sales of over 1.9 million, more than doubling the first week sales of the original Gears of War, it did not seem like it would take long for the sequel to outsell its predecessor. In fact if you compare the sales of both games from launch Gears of War 2’s total sales are still outpacing Gears of War during the same time frame.

From that graph it still appears unavoidable that Gears of War 2 will outsell Gears of War at some point. However, the difference in sales for the games through 54 weeks (the number of weeks since Gears of War 2 released) is primarily due to the 1 million more copies Gears of War 2 sold in its first week. If you compare the equivalent weeks for the two games, the first Gears of War title was selling more on a weekly basis after launch weeks, meaning that the comparison between the two games since launch will become closer and closer.

In that chart you can see that Gears of War began outpacing Gears of War in equivalent weeks soon after launch. However; in weeks 3-54 Gears of War only erased ~230,000 of the 1.1 million gap created in the first two weeks. This means that even if Gears of War continues to outsell Gears of War 2 during equivalent weeks for the remainder of their sales life, it will likely not be enough for Gears of War 2 to ever fall behind thanks to its huge launch. For Gears of War 2 to ever fall behind Gears of War, Gears of War 2 would need to average selling 10,000 less than Gears of War during equivalent weeks for approximately the next 18 months. Considering Gears of War began to sell less than 10,000 a week around week 80, it is extremely unlikely that will happen.

Before giving a final verdict, here is a summary of what both games have going for and against them.

What Gears of War has going …

For it – Currently has a ~600k lead. Was selling more than Gears of War 2 at its equivalent week.

Against it – Has already had a Platinum Hits release. Is being outsold on weekly basis (comparing current sales).  There is also a PC version of the game.

What Gears of War 2 has going…

For it – Outselling Gears of War on a weekly basis. Is ahead of Gears of War when comparing the games since launch (based on stronger initial sales). Has not had a Platinum Hits release.

Against It – When comparing equivalent weeks, Gears of War was selling more after launch period. Has not shown a boost in weekly sales due to the holidays yet this year.

Final Verdict – The huge launch Gears of War 2 had should be enough for it to eventually outsell Gears of War 1, even though the comparisons of sales since launch will become closer and closer. With weekly sales of around 2,000 and already having a Platinum Hits release, the first Gears of War should end up with total sales of 6 - 6.2 million. I am estimating that the current gap of equivalent week’s total sales will be cut in half when both games are done selling; meaning Gears of War 2 will end up around 400,000 units higher than the original (around 6.4 million).

 Gears of War 2 destroying its predecessor’s launch week, but then trailing in weekly sales since is an interesting trend. Recent sequels such as Uncharted 2 and Modern Warfare 2 both performed much better than their first installments at launch so it will be interesting to see if either of those titles follows a similar sales pattern as Gears of War 2.

Also worth noting is that Gears of War has often been assumed to be the Xbox’s next huge exclusive franchise after Halo. But on the Xbox Halo 2 saw a ~31% increase over the original Halo, whereas any growth Gears of War 2 shows will likely be less than 10%. That brings into question the potential Gears of War has to grow in popularity, if the games have an audience ceiling of around 6 million, or if Gears of War 2 just did not add enough to the franchise to see significant growth.

That is my take on this Sales Battle, here is what the VGChartz community thought.

Nubala- “I’m pretty sure Gears 2 will sale more in the end, though it looks like it’s going to be a while if those numbers are anything to go by. I’m thinking that over the next 2 months it should do another 2-3 hundred thousand, while  Gears 1 will do much less, putting Gears 2 closer than a year away.”

coolbeans – “I'm gonna say Gears 2 but not by much, it just recently got a price drop and Game of the Year edition so I can see it outselling Gears soon enough.”

c0rd – “I'll go with Gears of War 2. It is pretty shocking how far it still is, though. It's a prime example of how large launches don't necessarily guarantee higher sales, as the sequel sees weaker legs.”

Thanks for reading today's Sales Battle of the Day. If you missed the thread be sure to let us know which game you think will end up with the higher total sales in the comments.